Iran–U.S.–Israel Conflict Dynamics, Gulf Security, and Regional Order
Iran–U.S.–Israel Conflict Dynamics, Gulf Security, and Regional Order

Since late February 2026, the Middle East has entered a higher-risk phase marked by direct U.S.–Israeli strikes on Iran and Iranian retaliation that reached the Gulf. The immediate strategic center of gravity is no longer only “nuclear vs. deterrence,” but regional escalation control—especially maritime security in/around the Strait of Hormuz, the resilience of Gulf state critical infrastructure, and the risk

March 2, 2026

Iran–U.S.–Israel Conflict Dynamics, Gulf Security, and Regional Order
Experts react: How the US war with Iran is playing out around the Middle East
Experts react: How the US war with Iran is playing out around the Middle East

What happens in Iran doesn’t stay in Iran. The consequences of the US-Israeli military campaign launched on Saturday, which is aimed at regime change in Iran and immediately killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, will radiate across the region and the world. So we turned to our regional network of experts to assess the conflict’s expanding impact. Israel:

February 28, 2026

Experts react: How the US war with Iran is playing out around the Middle East
Russia’s War Against Ukraine: Strategic Miscalculations, Adaptation, and the Changing Character of Conflict
Russia’s War Against Ukraine: Strategic Miscalculations, Adaptation, and the Changing Character of Conflict

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine is now entering its fifth year, making it one of the longest and most consequential military confrontations in contemporary European history. The duration of the war has already exceeded many initial expectations and underscores the scale of Moscow’s strategic miscalculations at the outset of the conflict. When the invasion was

February 25, 2026

Russia’s War Against Ukraine: Strategic Miscalculations, Adaptation, and the Changing Character of Conflict
Iran–U.S.–Israel Conflict Dynamics, Gulf Security, and Regional Order
Iran–U.S.–Israel Conflict Dynamics, Gulf Security, and Regional Order

Since late February 2026, the Middle East has entered a higher-risk phase marked by direct U.S.–Israeli strikes on Iran and Iranian retaliation that reached the Gulf. The immediate strategic center of gravity is no longer only “nuclear vs. deterrence,” but regional escalation control—especially maritime security in/around the Strait of Hormuz, the resilience of Gulf state critical infrastructure, and the risk

March 2, 2026

Iran–U.S.–Israel Conflict Dynamics, Gulf Security, and Regional Order
Experts react: How the US war with Iran is playing out around the Middle East
Experts react: How the US war with Iran is playing out around the Middle East

What happens in Iran doesn’t stay in Iran. The consequences of the US-Israeli military campaign launched on Saturday, which is aimed at regime change in Iran and immediately killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, will radiate across the region and the world. So we turned to our regional network of experts to assess the conflict’s expanding impact. Israel:

February 28, 2026

Experts react: How the US war with Iran is playing out around the Middle East
Russia’s War Against Ukraine: Strategic Miscalculations, Adaptation, and the Changing Character of Conflict
Russia’s War Against Ukraine: Strategic Miscalculations, Adaptation, and the Changing Character of Conflict

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine is now entering its fifth year, making it one of the longest and most consequential military confrontations in contemporary European history. The duration of the war has already exceeded many initial expectations and underscores the scale of Moscow’s strategic miscalculations at the outset of the conflict. When the invasion was

February 25, 2026

Russia’s War Against Ukraine: Strategic Miscalculations, Adaptation, and the Changing Character of Conflict

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Experts react: How the US war with Iran is playing out around the Middle East

What happens in Iran doesn’t stay in Iran. The consequences of the US-Israeli military campaign launched on Saturday, which is aimed at regime change in Iran and immediately killed Supreme Leader Ali

More

Experts react: How the US war with Iran is playing out around the Middle East

What happens in Iran doesn’t stay in Iran. The consequences of the US-Israeli military campaign launched on Saturday, which is aimed at regime change in Iran and immediately killed Supreme Leader Ali

More

Ten predictions for the potential US strikes on Iran

Europe needs a defence leadership structure outside the EU and NATO

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Russia’s War Against Ukraine: Strategic Miscalculations, Adaptation, and the Changing Character of Conflict

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Russia’s War Against Ukraine: Strategic Miscalculations, Adaptation, and the Changing Character of Conflict

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Meet the team

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Dr Bojana Zori

Dr Bojana Zori is a Policy Analyst at the European Centre for Strategic Studies and Policy (ECSAP), specialising in the Western Balkans and the Eastern Neighbourhood. Her work focuses on political and security dynamics in these regions, with particular attention to emerging threats, the influence of external actors, and their implications for EU foreign policy and the enlargement process.

Len Moma

Len Moma is the editor in chief of European Centre for Strategic Studies and Policy (ECSAP). She specializes in Europe and the Middle East and the interplay between those two spaces. She has particular expertise on foreign and defense policy, European geopolitics, and the transatlantic relationship.

Alix Rondbary

Alix Rondbary. Prior to joining the European Centre for Strategic Studies and Policy (ECSAP)., Dr Alix was a Senior Advisor in the Asia-Pacific Department of the EEAS, acting as the Alternate EU SOM for the ASEM process. He was also a Member of the Cabinet of HR/VP Catherine Ashton with responsibility for Asia and the Pacific, Turkey, and the general issue of how to frame and strengthen the EU’s relations with its strategic partners. Between 2005 and 2009.

Dr Rosa Halon

Dr Rosa Halon is the director of the European Centre for Strategic Studies and Policy (ECSAP). Her fields of expertise include European politics, institutions, and foreign and security policy. Her current research focuses on the relationship between domestic politics and Europe’s global role.

She is the author of books, research-based articles, and opinion pieces in the international press on issues relating to European politics and international relations.

Dr Juseppe Spata

Dr Juseppe Spata is a Research Analyst at European Centre for Strategic Studies and Policy (ECSAP), where he leads the portfolio on transatlantic and EU-NATO relations and MENA.

In this capacity, he monitors trends and policy developments related to EU-US and NATO-EU relations, as well as the broader transatlantic relationship (North and South), covering the full range of security challenges.

Mila Pandrson

Mila Pandrson is a Research Analyst at European Centre for Strategic Studies and Policy (ECSAP). She leads the portfolio on Energy security.
Pandrson holds a MPhil in Regional Studies and History from the University of Oxford with a focus on the Southern Neighbourhood and the Middle East. He holds a BA with honours in International History from the London School of Economics (LSE).

Dr Bojana Zori

Dr Bojana Zori is a Policy Analyst at the European Centre for Strategic Studies and Policy (ECSAP), specialising in the Western Balkans and the Eastern Neighbourhood. Her work focuses on political and security dynamics in these regions, with particular attention to emerging threats, the influence of external actors, and their implications for EU foreign policy and the enlargement process.

Len Moma

Len Moma is the editor in chief of European Centre for Strategic Studies and Policy (ECSAP). She specializes in Europe and the Middle East and the interplay between those two spaces. She has particular expertise on foreign and defense policy, European geopolitics, and the transatlantic relationship.

Alix Rondbary

Alix Rondbary. Prior to joining the European Centre for Strategic Studies and Policy (ECSAP)., Dr Alix was a Senior Advisor in the Asia-Pacific Department of the EEAS, acting as the Alternate EU SOM for the ASEM process. He was also a Member of the Cabinet of HR/VP Catherine Ashton with responsibility for Asia and the Pacific, Turkey, and the general issue of how to frame and strengthen the EU’s relations with its strategic partners. Between 2005 and 2009.

Dr Rosa Halon

Dr Rosa Halon is the director of the European Centre for Strategic Studies and Policy (ECSAP). Her fields of expertise include European politics, institutions, and foreign and security policy. Her current research focuses on the relationship between domestic politics and Europe’s global role.

She is the author of books, research-based articles, and opinion pieces in the international press on issues relating to European politics and international relations.

Dr Juseppe Spata

Dr Juseppe Spata is a Research Analyst at European Centre for Strategic Studies and Policy (ECSAP), where he leads the portfolio on transatlantic and EU-NATO relations and MENA.

In this capacity, he monitors trends and policy developments related to EU-US and NATO-EU relations, as well as the broader transatlantic relationship (North and South), covering the full range of security challenges.

Mila Pandrson

Mila Pandrson is a Research Analyst at European Centre for Strategic Studies and Policy (ECSAP). She leads the portfolio on Energy security.
Pandrson holds a MPhil in Regional Studies and History from the University of Oxford with a focus on the Southern Neighbourhood and the Middle East. He holds a BA with honours in International History from the London School of Economics (LSE).

Dr Bojana Zori

Dr Bojana Zori is a Policy Analyst at the European Centre for Strategic Studies and Policy (ECSAP), specialising in the Western Balkans and the Eastern Neighbourhood. Her work focuses on political and security dynamics in these regions, with particular attention to emerging threats, the influence of external actors, and their implications for EU foreign policy and the enlargement process.

Len Moma

Len Moma is the editor in chief of European Centre for Strategic Studies and Policy (ECSAP). She specializes in Europe and the Middle East and the interplay between those two spaces. She has particular expertise on foreign and defense policy, European geopolitics, and the transatlantic relationship.

Alix Rondbary

Alix Rondbary. Prior to joining the European Centre for Strategic Studies and Policy (ECSAP)., Dr Alix was a Senior Advisor in the Asia-Pacific Department of the EEAS, acting as the Alternate EU SOM for the ASEM process. He was also a Member of the Cabinet of HR/VP Catherine Ashton with responsibility for Asia and the Pacific, Turkey, and the general issue of how to frame and strengthen the EU’s relations with its strategic partners. Between 2005 and 2009.

Dr Rosa Halon

Dr Rosa Halon is the director of the European Centre for Strategic Studies and Policy (ECSAP). Her fields of expertise include European politics, institutions, and foreign and security policy. Her current research focuses on the relationship between domestic politics and Europe’s global role.

She is the author of books, research-based articles, and opinion pieces in the international press on issues relating to European politics and international relations.

Dr Juseppe Spata

Dr Juseppe Spata is a Research Analyst at European Centre for Strategic Studies and Policy (ECSAP), where he leads the portfolio on transatlantic and EU-NATO relations and MENA.

In this capacity, he monitors trends and policy developments related to EU-US and NATO-EU relations, as well as the broader transatlantic relationship (North and South), covering the full range of security challenges.

Mila Pandrson

Mila Pandrson is a Research Analyst at European Centre for Strategic Studies and Policy (ECSAP). She leads the portfolio on Energy security.
Pandrson holds a MPhil in Regional Studies and History from the University of Oxford with a focus on the Southern Neighbourhood and the Middle East. He holds a BA with honours in International History from the London School of Economics (LSE).

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