# European Centre for Strategic Studies and Policy (ECSAP)


## Posts

- [Mapping the damage: Iranian strikes on the GCC](https://ecsap.org/slider/mapping-the-damage-iranian-strikes-on-the-gcc/): Since the US and Israel began their air campaign against Iran, the Islamic Republic has launched wide-ranging drone and missile attacks against all six GCC states. The damage inflicted is intended to put pressure on them, spread the cost of the war and expose the limits of US capabilities and will. Iran’s decision to strike its neighbours will reshape how they define their security and defence priorities. &nbsp; While only a few of the more than 4,000 Iranian projectiles&nbsp;launched&nbsp;against the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states have hit their intended targets as of 19 March 2026, they have sent shockwaves across [&hellip;]
- [Inside Tehran’s toll booth](https://ecsap.org/featured/inside-tehrans-toll-booth/): To make cross-border payments despite US sanctions, Iran has built a system of workarounds that includes banks, intermediaries, shadow networks, and cryptocurrency. WASHINGTON—There is a lot of attention right now on how Iran is managing access to the Strait of Hormuz—operating a kind of “toll booth” in which it clamps down on commercial flows through the vital waterway while&nbsp;reportedly&nbsp;allowing some vessels to transit for as much as $2 million per voyage or according to particular political and financial conditions. But an important question has received far less attention: How are Iran and oil purchasers settling their payments under current conditions? [&hellip;]
- [The Strategic Cost of Iranian Influence: From Regional Expansion to Internal Erosion](https://ecsap.org/publications/the-strategic-cost-of-iranian-influence-from-regional-expansion-to-internal-erosion/): The European Centre for Strategic Studies and Policy (ECSAP) In light of the rapid transformations reshaping the regional and international order, Iran emerges as one of the most prominent actors whose policies generate widespread debate not only in terms of the nature of its strategic behavior, but also regarding the accumulated costs of this behavior at both the domestic and external levels. For more than four decades, Tehran has adopted a model based on expanding regional influence through unconventional means, including support for transnational networks and armed militias, engagement in prolonged regional conflicts, and the use of indirect pressure tools [&hellip;]
- [Ten lessons from the first month of the Iran war](https://ecsap.org/featured/ten-lessons-from-the-first-month-of-the-iran-war/): One month ago, US and Israeli forces launched a military campaign against&nbsp;the&nbsp;Iranian regime&nbsp;that has had&nbsp;profound,&nbsp;globe-spanning consequences&nbsp;ever since—from&nbsp;energy markets to the global economy, and from&nbsp;the&nbsp;Gulf&nbsp;and&nbsp;broader Middle East&nbsp;to&nbsp;Romania,&nbsp;Sri Lanka,&nbsp;Russia, and China. With scenarios for the conflict’s next phrase ranging from diplomatic off-ramps to military escalation, we asked Atlantic Council experts to identify their biggest takeaways from the war so far. The&nbsp;Iranian regime One month into the Iran war, the Iranian regime is bruised, battered, and (perhaps irrationally) bullish about its future. The regime’s apparatus has withstood the decapitation of its leadership and&nbsp;more than 15,000 strikes&nbsp;on its capabilities and infrastructure. At the same [&hellip;]
- [Trump is fighting two wars with Iran. He needs to win both](https://ecsap.org/publications/trump-is-fighting-two-wars-with-iran-he-needs-to-win-both/): The newest edition of the&nbsp;Economist&nbsp;puts it this way: “The conflict ravaging the Middle East may best be understood as two parallel wars. One is the campaign of American and Israeli air strikes against the Iranian regime; the other is Iran’s war on the global economy.”&nbsp; If US President Donald Trump fails to address both simultaneously and successfully, he risks turning what has thus far been a tactical military success into a strategic failure with longer-term consequences for international stability.&nbsp; The first war is one of missiles, drones, and Israel’s targeting of Iranian leaders, now entering its fourth week. By most [&hellip;]
- [Middle East war: military, strategic and diplomatic angles](https://ecsap.org/featured/middle-east-war-military-strategic-and-diplomatic-angles/): Iran’s ballistic missiles and OWA UAVs Douglas Barrie Tehran’s stock of close, short, medium and intermediate-range ballistic missiles was a central pillar of its deterrence strategy. However, this strategy was found wanting when faced with the aerial onslaught by Israel and the United States. Iran expended a significant element of its medium- and intermediate-range ballistic-missile inventory during the Twelve-Day War in June 2025. The extent to which it was able to replace these missiles in the interim would have depended on its ability to repair damaged manufacturing facilities and secure the raw materials for propellant manufacture. Despite this, however, Iran [&hellip;]
- [Twenty questions (and expert answers) about the Iran war](https://ecsap.org/featured/twenty-questions-and-expert-answers-about-the-iran-war/): The US and Israeli militaries are hammering Iran for a second week. Iranian forces and proxies are striking back across the Middle East. Global financial and energy markets are full of volatility. And questions abound about the future trajectory of this conflict and its wider consequences. Below, Atlantic Council experts pierce the fog of war with clarifying answers to twenty of the most pressing questions about these fast-moving events. Click to jump to a question 1. Is the US accomplishing its goals in the war? 2. Is Israel achieving its aims in this conflict?  3. Will the US put boots on the ground in Iran? 4. What would be [&hellip;]
- [Europe’s coastal states tighten enforcement on Russia’s shadow fleet](https://ecsap.org/publications/europes-coastal-states-tighten-enforcement-on-russias-shadow-fleet/): European states are moving from symbolic boardings towards sustained maritime law enforcement intended to disrupt Russia’s shadow fleet and raise the costs of sanctions evasion. The consequences for NATO are significant and will likely shape Alliance deterrence and escalation risk in the future. On 6 March 2026, the Swedish Coast Guard took control of the cargo vessel&nbsp;Caffa&nbsp;in Swedish territorial waters off Trelleborg in the Baltic Sea and launched an investigation into the vessel’s seaworthiness. The coastguard’s action followed swiftly on the heels of Belgium’s armed forces which, together with the French, intercepted and boarded the shadow-fleet tanker&nbsp;Ethera&nbsp;in the North Sea. [&hellip;]
- [How the US and its allies can prevent an energy supply crisis in the Strait of Hormuz](https://ecsap.org/featured/how-the-us-and-its-allies-can-prevent-an-energy-supply-crisis-in-the-strait-of-hormuz/): WASHINGTON—After weeks of uncertainty, a seemingly perfect storm has formed in the Persian Gulf—one that energy security analysts and risk assessors have long feared. Amid ongoing joint US-Israeli strikes targeting Iranian senior leadership and critical infrastructure, Iranian regime threats are resulting in an effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz.&nbsp; With&nbsp;vessel traffic&nbsp;down 70 percent in the past week, voluntary delays for seaborne vessels, and insurers rapidly recalculating their premiums, matters are tense in the&nbsp;passageway&nbsp;through which more than 30 percent of the world’s seaborne crude oil is shipped.&nbsp;Warnings&nbsp;of unsafe conditions in the strait, in combination with missile barrages throughout the Gulf [&hellip;]
- [AI Warfare: The Coming Autonomous Battlefield](https://ecsap.org/featured/ai-warfare-the-coming-autonomous-battlefield/): Artificial intelligence is poised to transform warfare in ways that are only beginning to be understood. Autonomous weapons systems, drone swarms, and AI-driven command networks could dramatically increase the speed and scale of military operations. Artificial intelligence is rapidly transforming the nature of warfare. Over the past decade, advances in machine learning, autonomous systems, robotics, and data-driven decision-making have begun to reshape how militaries plan, execute, and evaluate operations. While drones marked the first major step toward automation on the battlefield, the integration of artificial intelligence into military platforms represents a far more profound transformation. In what many analysts now [&hellip;]
- [Iran–U.S.–Israel Conflict Dynamics, Gulf Security, and Regional Order](https://ecsap.org/publications/iran-u-s-israel-conflict-dynamics-gulf-security-and-regional-order/): Since late February 2026, the Middle East has entered a higher-risk phase marked by&nbsp;direct U.S.–Israeli strikes on Iran&nbsp;and&nbsp;Iranian retaliation that reached the Gulf. The immediate strategic center of gravity is no longer only “nuclear vs. deterrence,” but&nbsp;regional escalation control—especially&nbsp;maritime security in/around the Strait of Hormuz, the resilience of Gulf state critical infrastructure, and the risk of a sustained multi-front conflict that blends air/missile warfare, proxy activity, cyber operations, and energy coercion.&nbsp; 1) What happened and why it matters now A new threshold: direct, declared strikes Credible reporting indicates&nbsp;the United States and Israel conducted coordinated strikes on Iran&nbsp;in late February 2026, [&hellip;]
- [Future-proofing Civilian CSDP in a Challenging Strategic Environment: Seven Questions for Debate](https://ecsap.org/research-analysis/climate/future-proofing-civilian-csdp-in-a-challenging-strategic-environment-seven-questions-for-debate/): Despite repeated efforts, much-needed improvements to increase the strategic impact of the European Union’s (EU) Civilian Common Security and Defence Policy (civilian CSDP) have failed to materialize. Simultaneously, the formulation of strategic guidance in Brussels has stalled. This state of affairs risks civilian CSDP’s credibility and legitimacy in addressing the EU’s foreign policy priorities and security challenges. Against this backdrop, this research policy paper provides decision makers with seven questions for discussion. These questions touch on civilian CSDP’s future as a crisis management tool, its functional and geographical prioritization, the breadth of mission mandates, host country relations and other aspects [&hellip;]
- [Experts react: How the US war with Iran is playing out around the Middle East](https://ecsap.org/featured/experts-react-how-the-us-war-with-iran-is-playing-out-around-the-middle-east/): What happens in Iran doesn’t stay in Iran. The consequences of the&nbsp;US-Israeli military campaign&nbsp;launched on Saturday, which is aimed at regime change in Iran and immediately killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, will radiate across the region and the world. So we turned to our regional network of experts to assess the conflict’s expanding impact. Israel: Echoes of Purim in a diminishing threat&nbsp; JERUSALEM—Purim, which will be celebrated later this week, is figuring prominently in Israeli renditions of Operation Roaring Lion. The annual festival—which commemorates the deliverance of the Jewish people from annihilation in fifth century BCE Persia—has been invoked by both Prime [&hellip;]
- [Russia’s War Against Ukraine: Strategic Miscalculations, Adaptation, and the Changing Character of Conflict](https://ecsap.org/featured/russias-war-against-ukraine-strategic-miscalculations-adaptation-and-the-changing-character-of-conflict/): Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine is now entering its fifth year, making it one of the longest and most consequential military confrontations in contemporary European history. The duration of the war has already exceeded many initial expectations and underscores the scale of Moscow’s strategic miscalculations at the outset of the conflict. When the invasion was launched in February 2022, Russian leadership appeared to anticipate a rapid campaign aimed at neutralizing the Ukrainian state. Early operational designs suggested assumptions of limited resistance, with large armored formations advancing along major axes toward key urban centers. These plans reflected a high degree of [&hellip;]
- [Ten predictions for the potential US strikes on Iran](https://ecsap.org/featured/ten-predictions-for-the-potential-us-strikes-on-iran/): WASHINGTON—Experienced foreign-policy observers in the US capital have long learned never to make public predictions. The world is far too uncertain and the downside risks to your reputation are far too high if you end up well off the mark. It’s clearly advisable to wait until events have already transpired and then claim afterward that you saw them coming all along. This is especially the case when it comes to decisions to go to war. Yet those who carry the burden of policymaking are forced to make predictions to inform their policies. So even as negotiations continue between the United [&hellip;]
- [Europe needs a defence leadership structure outside the EU and NATO](https://ecsap.org/featured/europe-needs-a-defence-leadership-structure-outside-the-eu-and-nato/): Following this weekend’s Munich Security Conference, one conclusion is unavoidable: a year into Donald Trump’s presidency and four years after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Europe must be able to organise its own defence without relying on the United States.&nbsp; US Under Secretary of War&nbsp;for Policy&nbsp;Eldridge Colby&nbsp;told NATO defence ministers,&nbsp;in Brussels,&nbsp;last&nbsp;week that &#8220;NATO 3.0 requires much greater efforts by our allies to step up and assume primary responsibility for the conventional defence of Europe”.&nbsp;While he reaffirmed Washington’s commitment to the Article 5 mutual defence clause and to extended nuclear deterrence for Europe, few believe that Trump would put the US [&hellip;]
- [Munich Security Conference 2026](https://ecsap.org/publications/munich-security-conference-2026/): Over the past year, the European Policy Centre’s Defence and Security project (DefSecEU) has published a series of reports outlining how Europe can assume greater responsibility for its own defence in this shifting geopolitical landscape. These publications provide essential background reading for the debates in Munich. Here is a selection: Quick march! Ten steps for a European defence surge By Paul Taylor, Juraj Majcin, Chris Kremidas-Courtney, Maria Martisiute and Mihai Sebastian Chihaia Can Europe really mount a credible defence surge before the next shock hits? This EPC Policy Brief sets out ten concrete steps to mobilise Europe’s industrial, financial and [&hellip;]
- [Europe’s Quiet Power: Why Strategic Autonomy Should Be Built on Existing Strengths](https://ecsap.org/publications/europes-quiet-power-why-strategic-autonomy-should-be-built-on-existing-strengths/): Reframing Europe’s Autonomy Debate Europe’s strategic autonomy is frequently discussed in the language of deficit: insufficient military integration, fragmented capital markets, slower growth, and technological dependency. While these constraints are real, they risk obscuring a more consequential reality: Europe is already a systemic power in the global economy. Unlike the United States and China, whose power rests heavily on scale, speed, or technological concentration, Europe’s influence is embedded in structures of stability, specialization, and institutional credibility. Strategic autonomy, therefore, should not be framed as a race to match rival models, but as a project of leveraging existing comparative advantages. The [&hellip;]
- [Ukraine is leading a military revolution but needs more Western support](https://ecsap.org/publications/ukraine-is-leading-a-military-revolution-but-needs-more-western-support/): Ukraine entered 2026 in a seemingly perilous position, with Russian forces advancing on the battlefield and Ukrainian cities experiencing prolonged blackouts due to relentless Russian bombardment of critical infrastructure. This is adding to concerns that Ukraine’s defenses may be in danger of fraying. The country’s new Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov&nbsp;confirmed&nbsp;in January that around two hundred thousand soldiers are currently absent without official leave (AWOL), with a further two million men accused of avoiding military service. Russia is also facing serious problems. Unsustainable Russian military spending constitutes an economic time bomb for the Putin regime. Meanwhile, the Russian military continues to [&hellip;]
- [U.S.–Iran Relations at the Edge: Nuclear Risk, Regional War Dynamics, and Europe’s Narrowing Policy Space](https://ecsap.org/uncategorized/u-s-iran-relations-at-the-edge-nuclear-risk-regional-war-dynamics-and-europes-narrowing-policy-space/): European Centre for Strategic Studies and Policy (ECSAP) U.S.–Iran relations have entered a high-volatility phase in early February 2026, characterized by simultaneous signals of renewed diplomacy and heightened military posturing. Recent reporting indicates both sides are “examining” or “seriously” considering negotiations while a U.S. naval buildup near Iran and Iranian warnings of region-wide escalation amplify the risk of miscalculation.&nbsp; Three dynamics define the present moment: For Europe, the policy space is narrowing: balancing non-proliferation, regional stability, human-rights considerations, maritime security, and transatlantic cohesion is increasingly difficult as UN- and EU-adjacent pressure tools return to the center of the crisis.&nbsp; 1) [&hellip;]
- [From Procurement to Deployment: Turkish Drones in Sudan’s War](https://ecsap.org/uncategorized/from-procurement-to-deployment-turkish-drones-in-sudans-war/): Since the outbreak of the war in Sudan in April 2023, Turkish-made drones have emerged as a decisive element in the Sudanese Armed Forces’ military campaign, amid a conflict that has produced one of the world’s gravest humanitarian crises, with more than 12 million people displaced and thousands killed or injured. This investigation reveals how these advanced drone systems reached Sudan through opaque procurement channels and were operated with sustained external technical support—including training, maintenance, and satellite communications—raising serious legal and ethical questions about the responsibility of supplier states and manufacturers, particularly given the documented use of these weapons in [&hellip;]
- [Should Trump strike Iran? What happens next if he does?](https://ecsap.org/publications/should-trump-strike-iran-what-happens-next-if-he-does/): As the USS Abraham Lincoln arrives in the Middle East, two experts discuss the opportunities, uncertainties, and risks of a US strike on Iran. On Wednesday, US President Donald Trump&nbsp;posted&nbsp;on social media that a “massive” US armada led by the USS&nbsp;Abraham Lincoln&nbsp;was nearing Iran. “Like with Venezuela, it is, ready, willing, and able to rapidly fulfill its mission, with speed and violence, if necessary,” he wrote. Jason Brodsky and Danny Citrinowicz have years of experience working on Iran and thoughtful but significantly different viewpoints. After they engaged in&nbsp;a fascinating back-and-forth&nbsp;on X, we asked if they would expand the conversation about [&hellip;]
- [The EU and India are creating a free trade area of two billion people. What’s next?](https://ecsap.org/publications/the-eu-and-india-are-creating-a-free-trade-area-of-two-billion-people-whats-next/): The superlative description—“the mother of all deals”—is unmistakably Trumpian, but it didn’t involve the United States. On Tuesday, Indian and the European Union (EU) leaders&nbsp;announced&nbsp;the completion of a major trade deal. “We have created a free trade zone of two billion people, with both sides set to benefit,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said in a statement that also included the description above. “It represents 25 percent of the global [gross domestic product] and one-third of global trade,” Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi added. Below, Atlantic Council experts answer five pressing questions about this big agreement. Why is [&hellip;]
- [Sudan Under the Microscope: Uncovering a Pattern of Ethnic Violence Against the Kanabi Communities?](https://ecsap.org/publications/sudan-under-the-microscope-uncovering-a-pattern-of-ethnic-violence-against-the-kanabi-communities/): Since the outbreak of war in Sudan, violations have not been limited to being a byproduct of fighting between armed factions. Instead, mounting field testimonies and human rights reports suggest a far more dangerous trajectory: specific ethnic groups most notably the Kanabi communities have been subjected to recurring patterns of violence that go beyond the logic of conventional military operations. This investigation examines indicators of identity-based, systematic violence and analyzes whether the documented practices amount to a pattern of ethnic cleansing within the context of the Sudanese conflict. It does so by tracing incidents on the ground, patterns of targeting, [&hellip;]
- [At Davos, Trump’s ‘shock therapy’ leaves Europe shaken but healthier](https://ecsap.org/publications/at-davos-trumps-shock-therapy-leaves-europe-shaken-but-healthier/): A senior European official, who was in Davos this past week for the World Economic Forum, refers to US President Donald Trump’s approach to Europe as “shock therapy.” After enduring several tough doses in the first year of Trump’s second term—on Ukraine, on tariffs, on Europe’s so-called “civilizational erasure,” and then on Greenland—the patient’s condition is shaken, the official says. But it is stronger. I asked this European official for further explanation. Shock therapy, after all, is more commonly a description of electrical currents treating mental illness than a theory of international affairs. In the context of European-US relations in [&hellip;]
- [At Davos, Trump’s 19th-century instincts will collide with 21st-century uncertainty](https://ecsap.org/publications/at-davos-trumps-19th-century-instincts-will-collide-with-21st-century-uncertainty/): It’s hard to imagine a more discordant way for Donald Trump to mark the first anniversary of his second inauguration than by attending the World Economic Forum’s annual gathering of global leaders in Davos. When he speaks in the Swiss Alps on Wednesday, the US president will be contesting—whether intentionally or not—the very notions of global common cause Davos was designed to advance. Klaus Schwab founded the World Economic Forum in 1971, a decade after the Atlantic Council’s own birth, with a post-World War II premise that held until recently: that greater security cooperation, economic interdependence, institutional cooperation, and shared [&hellip;]
- [The US and NATO can avoid catastrophe over Greenland and emerge stronger. Here’s how.](https://ecsap.org/publications/the-us-and-nato-can-avoid-catastrophe-over-greenland-and-emerge-stronger-heres-how/): Daniel Fried WASHINGTON—The transatlantic divide over Greenland just deepened, with US President Donald Trump&nbsp;announcing&nbsp;on Saturday that he will impose escalating tariffs on Denmark and other European nations until they agree to a deal for the United States to purchase Greenland. At this precarious moment, three lines of effort are underway to avoid a catastrophic clash over the world’s largest island.&nbsp; One is diplomatic: through the high-level working group agreed to at a January 14 meeting in Washington between US, Danish, and Greenlandic officials. The second includes congressional efforts to block an outright US invasion of Greenland. The third is deterrence: [&hellip;]
- [What to watch as China prepares its digital yuan for prime time](https://ecsap.org/featured/what-to-watch-as-china-prepares-its-digital-yuan-for-prime-time/): China continues to advance its digital yuan project, implementing new features, and is pushing forward on the cross-border payments platform Project mBridge. Here are the top lines to know: For years, the prevailing assumption among policymakers and market observers was that central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), especially China’s digital yuan (e-CNY), would struggle to gain traction. Slow adoption, limited use cases, and public skepticism were expected to constrain their impact. New data from China, however, tell a different story. Five years after its first pilot, the e-CNY&nbsp;remains&nbsp;the world’s largest live central bank digital currency experiment. By the end of November [&hellip;]
- [The EU and Mercosur are creating one of the world’s largest free trade areas. What’s next?](https://ecsap.org/publications/the-eu-and-mercosur-are-creating-one-of-the-worlds-largest-free-trade-areas-whats-next/): Is free trade making a comeback? European Union (EU) member states voted on Friday to&nbsp;approve&nbsp;a trade deal with South America’s Mercosur trade bloc, which will create one of the world’s largest free trade areas when the two sides formally sign the agreement in the coming days. The deal—which has been under negotiation since 1999—passed over objections from several member states, including&nbsp;France, that raised concerns over how lowering trade barriers with Mercosur nations will affect domestic agriculture. What impact will this deal have on European competitiveness and South American export markets? And what details remain to be ironed out as the [&hellip;]
- [The United States’ War on Venezuela](https://ecsap.org/publications/the-united-states-war-on-venezuela/): Sanctions, Regime Pressure, and Strategic Intervention (2013–2026) Executive Summary The confrontation between the&nbsp;United States&nbsp;and&nbsp;Venezuela&nbsp;represents one of the most comprehensive cases of modern coercive foreign policy. Over more than a decade, Washington has employed a multilayered strategy combining&nbsp;economic sanctions, diplomatic isolation, legal pressure, information warfare, and—most recently—direct military intervention. This paper argues that the U.S. approach to Venezuela constitutes a form of&nbsp;hybrid warfare, designed not merely to change government behavior but to&nbsp;engineer political transformation&nbsp;in a strategically significant, resource-rich state. While officially justified in terms of democracy promotion, human rights, and counter-narcotics, the policy has had profound humanitarian, legal, and geopolitical consequences [&hellip;]
- [Germany: Review and round up of 2025 migration policy](https://ecsap.org/publications/germany-review-and-round-up-of-2025-migration-policy/): In 2025, Germany enters a pivotal year with significant changes to its immigration policies, aiming to streamline bureaucratic processes and attract global talent to meet labor market demands. From the introduction of digital visa application portals to updates in naturalization rules and political debates during an election year, these developments will profoundly impact the lives of foreign residents and prospective immigrants. Below, we explore the key changes shaping Germany’s immigration landscape this year. From the number of asylum applications to the length of resolution of asylum claims, InfoMigrants breaks down the latest government statistics from January to November 2025 for [&hellip;]
- [The Russian economy in 2025: Between stagnation and militarization ](https://ecsap.org/publications/the-russian-economy-in-2025-between-stagnation-and-militarization/): Table of contents In the three and a half years since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, its economy has continued to grow, supported by increased militarization. This resilience is a far cry from Western governments’ prognosis in the early days of the war that sanctions would crash the Russian economy. Sky-high energy prices and hesitation on the part of Western leaders to push for stronger enforcement of sanctions kept the Russian economy afloat in 2022. Meanwhile, deepening economic integration with China has helped supplant the void left by the loss of the European Union (EU) as a market. [&hellip;]
- [South Yemen State… The Middle East Is Close to Reclaiming an Old Map](https://ecsap.org/publications/south-yemen-state-the-middle-east-is-close-to-reclaiming-an-old-map/): Ministers from southern Yemen within the internationally recognized government have called for the declaration of a southern state as an inherent right to self-determination, affirming full institutional readiness to support this path.Observers note that the Southern Transitional Council’s control over most former South Yemeni territories, without significant international opposition, reflects a clear shift in the global stance toward the southern question. European Centre for Strategic Studies and Policy (ECSAP) The Middle East appears to be approaching a new phase in which one of its old political maps may be restored, following a call by five ministries within the Yemeni government [&hellip;]
- [How Russia is feeling the pressure from sanctions](https://ecsap.org/uncategorized/how-russia-is-feeling-the-pressure-from-sanctions/): Russia Sanctions Database: Our economic statecraft experts track the restrictive economic measures Western allies have placed on Russia and evaluate whether these measures are successful in bringing lasting peace to Ukraine. After Russia’s illegal full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Western partners imposed unprecedented financial sanctions and export controls against Russia. These measures aim to achieve&nbsp;three objectives: 1. Significantly reduce Russia’s revenues from commodities exports;2. Cripple Russia’s military capability and ability to pursue its war;3. Impose significant pain on the Russian economy. The Atlantic Council’s Russia Sanctions Database tracks the restrictive economic measures Western allies have placed on Russia [&hellip;]
- [As Europe’s neutral states shift closer to NATO, Ireland approaches a turning point for its security](https://ecsap.org/publications/as-europes-neutral-states-shift-closer-to-nato-ireland-approaches-a-turning-point-for-its-security/): In a further sign of the deteriorating security environment in Europe, the Republic of Ireland is rethinking the role of its military and its policy toward defense. Ireland’s renewed security discussion highlights the diminishing number of neutral or nonaligned countries in Europe in the wake of Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Sweden and Finland’s 2023 decision to join NATO ended their centuries of military nonalignment. Even Austria and Switzerland, two countries synonymous with neutrality, have taken some steps toward condemning Russian aggression, such as Switzerland’s decision to host a NATO liaison office in Geneva. Although Ireland’s renewed security debate should [&hellip;]
- [How a Venezuela shock could raise global oil and food prices](https://ecsap.org/publications/how-a-venezuela-shock-could-raise-global-oil-and-food-prices/): Tensions between Washington and Caracas are high and could boil over. Thousands of US military personnel and about a dozen warships, including the USS&nbsp;Gerald Ford&nbsp;aircraft carrier and an amphibious ready group,&nbsp;are deployed&nbsp;around Venezuela, while the Maduro regime has launched a “massive mobilization” of military personnel and equipment.&nbsp; Hopes are high that this moment could present momentum for the long-awaited democratic transition in Venezuela, and US policy should continue to press hard for it. Still, while Washington should continue to ratchet up pressure on the Maduro regime, a military intervention would hold first- and second-order risks to global energy and food [&hellip;]
- [Russia’s shadow war: How the Kremlin uses sabotage to wear down Europe](https://ecsap.org/publications/russias-shadow-war-how-the-kremlin-uses-sabotage-to-wear-down-europe/): WARSAW—Unable to defeat Ukraine quickly or force political capitulation in Kyiv, Russia has expanded the battlefield into the daily life of European societies. Moscow’s objective is clear: weaken Western unity by creating a constant sense of vulnerability, without crossing the threshold that would trigger a formal NATO response. This pressure is increasingly visible in Poland and elsewhere in Central and Eastern Europe. This month, a&nbsp;deliberate act of sabotage&nbsp;occurred on the Polish-Ukrainian railway corridor, where an explosion destroyed a section of track used to transport goods to Ukraine. The suspects reportedly escaped across the border into Belarus. A year earlier, Warsaw [&hellip;]
- [How the Baltic Sea nations have tackled suspicious cable cuts](https://ecsap.org/publications/how-the-baltic-sea-nations-have-tackled-suspicious-cable-cuts/): In 2023 and 2024, many undersea cables and a pipeline in the Baltic Sea were cut or damaged in a string of suspicious incidents. Caught by surprise, the Baltic states’ initial response was improvised and uncoordinated.  The AI boom and the energy transition are likely to increase the number of undersea cables, and governments can no longer assume they would only be damaged by accident.  A NATO task force now leads multinational patrols and the EU has reached out to nations whose flag is used by vessels flouting maritime law to get dangerous ships de-flagged.  On September 26, 2022, the [&hellip;]
- [How Venezuela uses crypto to sell oil—and what the US should do about it](https://ecsap.org/publications/how-venezuela-uses-crypto-to-sell-oil-and-what-the-us-should-do-about-it/): As the&nbsp;US military buildup&nbsp;increases near the shores of Venezuela, the United States could consider a measure to pressure&nbsp;Nicolás&nbsp;Maduro’s government without resorting to force: restricting its access to dollar-pegged stablecoins.&nbsp;Reports&nbsp;suggest that the Venezuelan government has been receiving oil payments in the stablecoin USDT since 2024—undermining the sanctions the Trump administration placed on Venezuela’s state-owned oil company and central bank in 2019. This method resembles sanctions evasion schemes used by other heavily sanctioned states, including Russia, Iran, and North Korea, and it merits a strong and coordinated US policy response. Crypto adoption is Venezuela’s response to US sanctions In recent years, the [&hellip;]
- [Perceptions of Europe Across the Generations: Rebuilding Trust in the Rule of Law](https://ecsap.org/featured/perceptions-of-europe-across-the-generations-rebuilding-trust-in-the-rule-of-law/): As polarization increases across Western societies, the gap between Baby Boomers and Millennials could become a fault line. Rebuilding intergenerational trust is essential to restoring shared values in liberal democracies. Caught between Russia’s war in Ukraine, a disruptive U.S. president, the rise of hard-right parties in Europe, and the continent’s struggle to influence world events, European citizens are often confused. But they may have different reasons for their confusion. Here, two members of the Carnegie Europe team, born forty-nine years apart and hence with different experiences and contrasting perceptions, voice their common belief that the values developed by Western European [&hellip;]
- [Ukraine’s Not So Critical Mineral Deposits](https://ecsap.org/publications/ukraines-not-so-critical-mineral-deposits/): As Trump pursues trade wars and the annexation of territories for natural resources, access to Ukraine’s minerals could strain transatlantic relations. Given Europe’s lack of resources and limited military power to secure supplies, even Ukraine’s modest wealth might be worth negotiating for. A narrative has emerged that Ukraine’s mineral wealth is a prize that can drastically change the energy security and global power balance for whichever great power possess it. This is mostly fantasy and, for any power other than Europe, Ukraine’s mineral wealth is pretty much insignificant.&nbsp; There is nothing that Ukraine has, that can’t be obtained in greater [&hellip;]
- [Taking the Pulse: Are Europe’s New Asylum Policies a Betrayal of its Values?](https://ecsap.org/publications/taking-the-pulse-are-europes-new-asylum-policies-a-betrayal-of-its-values/): Hard-line approaches to asylum policy are increasingly common, with crackdowns proposed even by parties that traditionally hold liberal views on migration. Does this shift represent a break with Europe’s fundamental values? To paraphrase that great European, Talleyrand, the nineteenth-century French diplomat, closing our borders to refugees is undoubtedly a crime. But worse than that, it is a mistake. The combination of dubious deals, pushbacks at sea, and draconian deportation policies may look like success. But every analysis tells us that Europe’s&nbsp;ageing population&nbsp;and shrinking workforce mean we need new workers, both in sectors like care and construction—which are heavily reliant on [&hellip;]
- [The expert conversation: Separating signal from noise in Trump’s Ukraine peace plan](https://ecsap.org/publications/the-expert-conversation-separating-signal-from-noise-in-trumps-ukraine-peace-plan/): Ukraine is facing a “very difficult choice,” President Volodymyr Zelenskyy&nbsp;said today. “Either loss of dignity, or the risk of losing a key partner.” His speech, marking Ukraine’s Day of Dignity and Freedom, came amid reports of increasing pressure from the United States to accept a twenty-eight-point plan to end the war that Russia launched against Ukraine in February 2022.&nbsp; To dive into the details of the proposal and understand its bigger-picture significance, we turned to John Herbst, the senior director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center and a former US ambassador to Ukraine, who always has his finger on the [&hellip;]
- [The Hidden Influence Network: The Invisible Role of Sudanese Diplomatic Missions in Protecting Individuals Wanted by International Justice](https://ecsap.org/uncategorized/the-hidden-influence-network-the-invisible-role-of-sudanese-diplomatic-missions-in-protecting-individuals-wanted-by-international-justice/): London – Khartoum – Cairo – New York As thousands of Darfur survivors continue to wait for justice nearly two decades on, the Sudanese government has been quietly advancing a parallel track silent, calculated, and woven with precise diplomatic threads aimed at rehabilitating senior figures accused of genocide and war crimes and shielding them from the reach of the International Criminal Court (ICC). Across a sprawling network stretching from Khartoum to New York, Geneva, Cairo, and Brussels, the Sudanese state has redeployed diplomats and ambassadors from the old regime into strategically chosen foreign posts. Their role no longer resembles traditional [&hellip;]
- [The US-EU trade agreement is not set in stone. This presents pitfalls and opportunities.](https://ecsap.org/publications/the-us-eu-trade-agreement-is-not-set-in-stone-this-presents-pitfalls-and-opportunities/): Only a few months ago, the idea that the European Union (EU) should&nbsp;not&nbsp;retaliate against US President Donald Trump’s tariffs was highly eccentric. Yes, withholding retaliation would spare European citizens and firms from the pain of more lost business and pass-through inflation. But as the United States’ largest trading partner, the EU was meant to have leverage—both to defend its own interests and to stand up for the international trade rules it claims to uphold. Instead, Brussels opted for a clearly asymmetric deal. To get the United States to reduce the 30 percent “reciprocal” tariff it was ready to impose by [&hellip;]
- [Thousands march at COP30 to demand end to deforestation and fossil fuels](https://ecsap.org/publications/thousands-march-at-cop30-to-demand-end-to-deforestation-and-fossil-fuels/): Thousands of people thronged the streets of the Amazonian city of Belem in Brazil on Saturday, urging COP30 negotiators to take urgent action against climate change and halt the use of fossil fuels and the devastating deforestation of the Amazon Rainforest. “We are witnessing a massacre,” one protester said of the Amazon, often known as the lungs of the earth. Thousands of people marched through the streets of Belem on Saturday to press for action from negotiators holding tough talks at the UN&#8217;s&nbsp;COP30&nbsp;climate&nbsp;conference&nbsp;in the Amazonian city. Under a baking sun, Indigenous people mixed with activists gathered in a festive atmosphere, [&hellip;]
- [Minsk in Moscow’s grip: How Russia subjugated Belarus without annexation](https://ecsap.org/publications/minsk-in-moscows-grip-how-russia-subjugated-belarus-without-annexation/): For about five years, from 2015 to 2020, Belarus created an illusion that it was changing: a deceptive glimmer that suggested its leader, Alyaksandr Lukashenka, might steer his country away from Russia’s orbit and toward greater independence. In hindsight, this false dawn only masked the tightening grip of Moscow. Two myths fueled misplaced optimism. First, there was a belief that Belarus could balance between the East and West through a multivector foreign policy. Second, there was a hope that Minsk’s limited reforms, release of some political prisoners, and especially its refusal to unconditionally back Moscow in the 2014 annexation of [&hellip;]
- [The Forgotten War in Sudan: Regional and International Support Networks for the Sudanese Armed Forces and Their Impact on the Escalation of Crimes Against Civilians (2023–2025) ](https://ecsap.org/uncategorized/the-forgotten-war-in-sudan-regional-and-international-support-networks-for-the-sudanese-armed-forces-and-their-impact-on-the-escalation-of-crimes-against-civilians-2023-2025/): European Centre for Strategic Studies and Policy (ECSAP) Executive Summary Since April 2023, Sudan has witnessed a large-scale war between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). What began as a struggle for power within the state’s security apparatus quickly evolved into a multi-layered conflict spanning cities and regions, sustained by cross-border support networks. This transformation led to the collapse of civilian state institutions, widespread destruction of infrastructure, and the displacement of over 9 million people, making it one of the largest displacement crises in the modern world. Documents and analysis of military supply chains reveal [&hellip;]
- [China is the Weak Link in Europe’s Ukraine Strategy](https://ecsap.org/publications/china-is-the-weak-link-in-europes-ukraine-strategy/): China plays an increasingly active role in the Kremlin’s hybrid war against Europe. The EU must confront this growing China-Russia cooperation, as it poses grave threats to both European security and economic resilience. Both Europe and the United States are getting impatient with China over Ukraine. It is now clearer than ever that Beijing emboldens Russia to continue its war of aggression by providing Moscow with both military and economic assistance. And yet, Europe&#8217;s active punitive measures against China still lag far behind its critical words.&nbsp; On October 27, European Council President António Costa&nbsp;met&nbsp;Chinese Premier Li Qiang. He voiced Europe’s [&hellip;]
- [A Flood of Green Tech From China Is Upending Global Climate Politics](https://ecsap.org/publications/a-flood-of-green-tech-from-china-is-upending-global-climate-politics/): At this year’s climate summit, the United States is out and Europe is struggling. But emerging countries are embracing renewable energy thanks to a glut of cheap equipment. As the United States&nbsp;torpedoes climate action&nbsp;and Europe&nbsp;struggles to realize its green ambitions, a surprising shift is taking hold in many large, fast-growing economies where a majority of the world’s people live. Countries like Brazil, India, and Vietnam are rapidly expanding solar and wind power. Poorer countries like Ethiopia and Nepal are leapfrogging over gasoline-burning cars to battery-powered ones. Nigeria, a petrostate, plans to&nbsp;build its first solar-panel manufacturing plant. Morocco is creating a [&hellip;]
- [Hidden Fire Lines: An Investigation Tracking Egyptian Support Networks to the Sudanese Army Under the Cover of Humanitarian Aid](https://ecsap.org/publications/hidden-fire-linesan-investigation-tracking-egyptian-support-networks-to-the-sudanese-army-under-the-cover-of-humanitarian-aid/): European Center for Strategic Analysis and Policy (ECSAP)Over two years of conflict that have torn Sudan apart, the Sudanese army has remained capable of sustaining high-tempo military operations despite economic collapse, dwindling resources, and the breakdown of internal supply routes. A single question echoed among survivors, researchers, and international actors alike: Where is the weaponry coming from? Who is financing the continuation of this war? While cities were bombed, homes burned, and displaced families fled from one area to another, undisclosed supply corridors were moving across borders: Preliminary documents, flight and maritime tracking data, and field testimonies from former officials [&hellip;]
- [Taking the Pulse: Has Europe Given Up its Leadership on Climate Change?](https://ecsap.org/uncategorized/taking-the-pulse-has-europe-given-up-its-leadership-on-climate-change/): COP30 takes place amidst increased pessimism about the world’s commitment to energy transition and ecological protection. Beset by a host of other challenges, can Europe still maintain its role as a driver of global climate action? Reaching consensus among EU member states and keeping the union’s climate framework intact is no small feat in today’s political and economic climate. Europe will arrive in Belém (the Brazilian city where&nbsp;COP30&nbsp;is hosted) with an agreed Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) aligned with its&nbsp;2050 net-zero goal. That’s later than ideal, but still a clear signal of continued commitment to the&nbsp;Paris Agreement. The task now is [&hellip;]
- [Ukraine Receives Additional Patriot Air Defence Systems from Germany: Strategic and Security Implications](https://ecsap.org/featured/ukraine-receives-additional-patriot-air-defence-systems-from-germany-strategic-and-security-implications/): European Centre for Strategic Studies and Policy (ECSAP) 1. Introduction As Russia intensifies its aerial assaults against Ukraine’s critical infrastructure, Western allies have continued to strengthen Kyiv’s defensive capabilities. Among the most significant recent developments is Germany’s delivery of additional U.S.-made MIM-104 Patriot air defence systems to Ukraine. This transfer represents not only a crucial tactical upgrade for Ukraine’s air defence network but also a broader geopolitical signal of Europe’s commitment to Ukraine’s sovereignty and long-term resilience. 2. Context and Background Germany’s decision to supply additional Patriot batteries comes amid sustained Russian missile and drone strikes targeting energy facilities and population centres.Berlin [&hellip;]
- [How the new US sanctions on Russian oil will impact energy markets](https://ecsap.org/publications/how-the-new-us-sanctions-on-russian-oil-will-impact-energy-markets/): The Trump administration has taken decisive action to leverage its considerable sanctions authorities and increase pressure on the Russian government and its war machine. The latest US sanctions, targeting the major Russian oil and gas producers Rosneft and Lukoil, bring the United States into much closer alignment with both the United Kingdom (which issued similar sanctions last week) and the European Union, which has just finalized its own fresh package of sanctions including a complete phase out of Russian natural gas imports into the bloc.&nbsp;What this will ultimately mean for global energy markets depends on several factors. The Russian oil [&hellip;]
- [Public Attitudes towards EU Enlargement: Technical and Policy Implications for Managing Future Accessions](https://ecsap.org/publications/56-of-citizens-support-eu-enlargement/): Abstract This paper analyzes European public attitudes towards EU enlargement, drawing on the latest Eurobarometer findings as presented in the report&nbsp;“Attitudes towards EU Enlargement” (2024). The study explores how support for admitting new member states varies across regions, demographics, and political affiliations within the EU. It argues that enlargement sentiment is increasingly shaped by perceptions of migration, economic stability, and geopolitical security rather than by the ideals of integration or solidarity that guided earlier expansion waves. The analysis identifies a widening gap between Western and Eastern member states, with Western publics exhibiting growing skepticism—particularly regarding the accession of Turkey and [&hellip;]
- [Ukraine’s drone wall is Europe’s first line of defense against Russia](https://ecsap.org/publications/ukraines-drone-wall-is-europes-first-line-of-defense-against-russia/): As Russia’s summer offensive continues to unfold along a front line measuring hundreds of miles, Ukraine’s overstretched military finds itself heavily reliant on drones to prevent any major breakthroughs. The Ukrainian military’s innovative and rapidly evolving use of unmanned aerial vehicles to create a layered defense is often referred to as a “drone wall.” If this Ukrainian drone wall can prove itself over the coming months and blunt Putin’s big offensive, this will likely shape future defensive doctrine in military academies across Europe and beyond. The military use of unmanned aerial vehicles has evolved dramatically since the onset of Russia’s [&hellip;]
- [How Trump can apply his Middle East success to ending Russia’s war in Ukraine](https://ecsap.org/publications/how-trump-can-apply-his-middle-east-success-to-ending-russias-war-in-ukraine/): As the cease-fire his administration brokered between Israel and Hamas went into effect last week, US President Donald Trump&nbsp;told&nbsp;the Israeli Knesset that next he wanted “to get Russia done.”&nbsp; The Israel-Hamas war and the Russia-Ukraine war are obviously different in many important ways. Having served as a US diplomat both in Israel and Ukraine, I know the regions where these conflicts take place have much that makes them distinct. Nonetheless, there are several important lessons from Trump’s recent triumph in the Middle East that might apply to ending the war in Europe. What worked in the Middle East Specifically, Trump’s [&hellip;]
- [What to know about the Tomahawk cruise missiles President Trump says he might give Ukraine](https://ecsap.org/publications/what-to-know-about-the-tomahawk-cruise-missiles-president-trump-says-he-might-give-ukraine/): European Centre for Strategic Studies and Policy (ECSAP) Conflict analysts at the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank, have determined that there are at least 1,900 Russian military targets within range of the 1,550-mile Tomahawk variant, and more than 1,600 targets within range of the 1,000-mile variant of the missile. Executive summary Recent public comments by U.S. President Donald Trump that he is “sort of made a decision, pretty much” about supplying or enabling the supply of Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine have reopened a high-stakes debate about capability, logistics, escalation risk, and legal/political constraints. Tomahawk [&hellip;]
- [Twenty questions (and expert answers) about the next phase of an Israel-Hamas deal](https://ecsap.org/publications/twenty-questions-and-expert-answers-about-the-next-phase-of-an-israel-hamas-deal/): On Monday, in the first part of a cease-fire deal brokered by the White House, Hamas released all twenty living hostages that it still held following its October 7, 2023, terrorist attack, while Israel released nearly two thousand Palestinian prisoners, paused strikes, and began to pull back Israeli forces within Gaza. “A big burden has been lifted, but the job IS NOT DONE,” US President Donald Trump&nbsp;posted&nbsp;on social media on Tuesday. “Phase Two begins right NOW!!!” So what should this next phase include? Who or what might play the spoiler in further peace-building efforts? And what moves should we expect [&hellip;]
- [As Pakistan Battles the Afghan Taliban, Fears of a Major War Rise](https://ecsap.org/publications/as-pakistan-battles-the-afghan-taliban-fears-of-a-major-war-rise/): Prepared for the European Centre for Strategic Studies and Policy (ECSAP) Executive Summary Pakistan faces a rapidly escalating security crisis along its northwestern frontier, where renewed clashes with Taliban militants have intensified since 2023. The Taliban’s resurgence in Afghanistan has emboldened militant factions such as Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), triggering violent incursions into Pakistani territory. The Pakistani military’s counterinsurgency operations, coupled with the deteriorating diplomatic relationship between Islamabad and Kabul, have raised fears of a wider regional conflict. This paper analyzes the structural roots of the conflict, its regional implications, and potential scenarios of escalation or de-escalation, drawing on military intelligence [&hellip;]
- [Behind the scenes of the IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings as leaders adjust to a new normal of uncertainty](https://ecsap.org/publications/behind-the-scenes-of-the-imf-world-bank-annual-meetings-as-leaders-adjust-to-a-new-normal-of-uncertainty/): As financial leaders descend upon Washington, DC, this week for the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva&nbsp;issued&nbsp;them some bleak advice: “Don’t get too comfortable.” Georgieva’s warning last week came as the global economy continued to prove resilient against global shocks ranging from the United States’ tariff-rate changes to an artificial-intelligence investment boom that many believe is a bubble at risk of bursting. And while the global economy has done better than many feared, risks still linger. As Georgieva put it: “Uncertainty is the new normal, and it is here to [&hellip;]
- [Dispatch from Ukraine: The path to a durable peace is emerging](https://ecsap.org/publications/dispatch-from-ukraine-the-path-to-a-durable-peace-is-emerging/): European Centre for Strategic Studies and Policy (ECSAP) From a secret Ukrainian waterfront location, I follow my trainer’s directions on how to steer a kamikaze sea drone, this time not armed with explosives, from a gamer’s console toward an imagined target at sufficient speed to lift the boat’s nose above the waves. The technology is so advanced and the payload so devastating that Western partners are beating a path to Ukraine to witness and invest in the future of modern warfare. Ukrainian sources say that the Trump administration is in the early stages of negotiating what could amount to a [&hellip;]
- [The Trump Gaza Peace Plan Needs the EU, Too](https://ecsap.org/publications/the-trump-gaza-peace-plan-needs-the-eu-too/): The EU can play an essential role in ensuring all phases of U.S. President Donald Trump’s peace plan are implemented by both Israel and the Palestinians. But for the union to exert its influence, Germany must rethink its unwavering support for Israel. While the imprimatur of U.S. President Donald Trump has been the sine qua non for an end to the Israeli war in Gaza, the EU holds key cards to ensure any plan is actually implemented. That is, provided enough EU member states finally resolve to using their leverage in the most important theater abutting them apart from Ukraine. [&hellip;]
- [Two Years After an Attack that Shook the Mideast, What are the Consequences?](https://ecsap.org/publications/two-years-after-an-attack-that-shook-the-mideast-what-are-the-consequences/): European Centre for Strategic Studies and Policy (ECSAP) On October 7, 2023, a surprise attack from Hamas-led militants in Gaza became the deadliest day in Israeli history. Israel’s ensuing war in Gaza has been the deadliest and most destructive Palestinians have ever endured. We look at the heavy human costs born by Israelis and Palestinians over the last two years.  Introduction On October 7, 2023, Hamas and allied militants launched a surprise and massive assault from Gaza into southern Israel. That day has been described by Israeli officials and many observers as the deadliest in Israel’s history, with civilian massacres, [&hellip;]
- [Gaza’s Post-Ceasefire Trajectory: Political, Security, and Economic Pathways after the “First-Phase” Agreement](https://ecsap.org/publications/gazas-post-ceasefire-trajectory-political-security-and-economic-pathways-after-the-first-phase-agreement/): European Centre for Strategic Studies and Policy (ECSAP) – Independent Analysis Executive Summary Israel and Hamas have agreed to a “first phase” ceasefire—a structured pause coupled to hostage releases, an Israeli redeployment to defined lines inside Gaza, and a large prisoner exchange—under a wider multi-point framework championed by Washington and mediated with Cairo, Doha and others. Implementation is slated to begin within days, with international actors preparing to support stabilisation and early reconstruction.  The agreement is fragile, conditional, and front-loaded: gains (hostage releases, troop pullbacks, aid inflows) are immediate; hard problems (Hamas disarmament, Gaza governance, security guarantees, border regime) are deferred to [&hellip;]
- [From success to strategy: Three lessons from Moldova’s election](https://ecsap.org/issues-in-focus/from-success-to-strategy-three-lessons-from-moldovas-election/): The success of Maia Sandu’s pro-EU party in Moldova’s parliamentary election holds three valuable lessons for protecting votes from Russian meddling in the future—whether that is in Moldova or in other vulnerable democracies Leo Litra and Gabrielė Valodskaitė In just under a year, pro-EU forces in Moldova enjoyed quite a shift in their electoral fortunes. The autumn 2024 presidential election saw incumbent Maia Sandu scrape an&nbsp;11-point&nbsp;win in the run-off largely thanks to diaspora votes. In the concurrent referendum on whether to enshrine EU accession as a goal in the country’s constitution, “yes” won by the narrowest of margins. But the [&hellip;]
- [Central Asia’s geography inhibits a US critical minerals partnership](https://ecsap.org/publications/central-asias-geography-inhibits-a-us-critical-minerals-partnership/): By Haley Nelson and Natalia Storz Recognizing the national security risks posed by China’s&nbsp;chokehold&nbsp;over critical mineral supply chains, the new Trump administration has issued&nbsp;an executive order&nbsp;that aims to increase domestic production. This and previous administrations have also courted alternative critical mineral suppliers to diversify US supply chains. Now, attention is also shifting to the five countries of Central Asia (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan)—a resource-rich region with a wealth of minerals necessary for energy and defense technologies. Through the&nbsp;C5+1 Critical Minerals Dialogue, the Group of Seven’s (G7’s)&nbsp;Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment&nbsp;(PGII), and bilateral&nbsp;memoranda of understanding&nbsp;signed with the region, [&hellip;]
- [How to prevent the next war in Europe: A five-point plan](https://ecsap.org/publications/how-to-prevent-the-next-war-in-europe-a-five-point-plan/): Europe and Ukraine are on the brink of disaster. An emergency programme is needed that relieves the US, strengthens Ukraine—and prevents the war from spreading. This is what it could look like Claudia Major, Carlo Masala, Christian Mölling, Jana Puglierin  Great-power thinking, disdain for alliances, and a bitter culture war—these three terms describe the new relationship between Europe and the United States following recent&nbsp;developments&nbsp;at the Munich Security Conference. Although much remains to be seen, the general direction is clear: the US is stepping back from its leading political and military role. Washington has initiated negotiations with Russia over the heads [&hellip;]
- [Drone superpower: Ukrainian wartime innovation offers lessons for NATO](https://ecsap.org/publications/drone-superpower-ukrainian-wartime-innovation-offers-lessons-for-nato/): By&nbsp;David Kirichenko Ever since the onset of Russian aggression against Ukraine eleven years ago, military training has been a core element of Western support for the Ukrainian Armed Forces. As Moscow’s invasion has escalated into the largest European war since World War II, the relationship between Ukraine and the country’s partners has become much more of a two-way street. While Ukrainian troops continue to train with Western instructors, it is now increasingly apparent that NATO also has a lot to learn from Ukraine. The Ukrainian military has evolved dramatically during the past three years of full-scale war against Russia to [&hellip;]
- [Will the War in Gaza End? Dynamics, Risks, and Trump’s Proposal](https://ecsap.org/publications/will-the-war-in-gaza-end-dynamics-risks-and-trumps-proposal/): European Centre for Strategic Studies and Policy (ECSAP) Executive Summary After nearly two years of war in Gaza, the conflict has entered a critical juncture with a new U.S. plan proposed under Trump’s leadership. The plan combines a ceasefire, prisoner/hostage exchange, transitional governance arrangements in Gaza, and conditions for disarmament of Hamas. As of early October 2025, Hamas has publicly accepted parts of the plan—particularly releasing all hostages and agreeing to a transitional administrative structure—while reserving its position on disarmament. Trump has urged Israel to “halt bombing immediately” and issued a deadline for acceptance of his 20–21 point framework. Indicators [&hellip;]
- [Twenty questions (and expert answers) about the negotiations to end Russia’s war in Ukraine](https://ecsap.org/publications/twenty-questions-and-expert-answers-about-the-negotiations-to-end-russias-war-in-ukraine-2/): European Centre for Strategic Studies and Policy (ECSAP) Executive Summary (Key Judgments) Military Situation Diplomacy Russia: Domestic Landscape Russia’s Economy Ukraine’s Economy Security Guarantees NATO &amp; EU Tracks Economic Tools &amp; Sanctions Human Rights &amp; Accountability China Baltic Perspective Scenarios (6–12 Months) Indicators to Watch (Early Warning/Opportunity) Policy Recommendations (ECSAP) For the European Union and European States For the United States and Transatlantic Partners
- [Why are US warships heading toward Venezuela?](https://ecsap.org/publications/why-are-us-warships-heading-toward-venezuela/): By European Centre for Strategic Studies and Policy (ECSAP) and Atlantic Council  and Atlantic Council experts Set a course for the Caribbean. The United States has&nbsp;deployed&nbsp;three Aegis guided-missile destroyers and several other warships to the waters near Venezuela to counter maritime narcotics trafficking. US President Donald Trump has made curbing drug flows into the United States an administration priority. At the same time, the sizable US flotilla, which carries more than four thousand US sailors and Marines, has raised speculation about the threat it poses to Venezuelan strongman Nicolás Maduro. To steer us to answers on the important questions about this [&hellip;]
- [Why China and Russia are unlikely to move the Power of Siberia-2 pipeline forward](https://ecsap.org/publications/why-china-and-russia-are-unlikely-to-move-the-power-of-siberia-2-pipeline-forward/): European Centre for Strategic Studies and Policy (ECSAP) and Atlantic Council  While Russian President Vladimir Putin traveled to Beijing this week to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping, Russia’s energy giant Gazprom sought to establish a cross-border connection of a different kind. In Beijing on September 2, Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller announced that a “legally binding memorandum” had been signed for the Power of Siberia 2 (PoS-2) natural gas pipeline,&nbsp;according&nbsp;to Interfax, a Russian news agency. It would be easy to see this as a major step forward in the relationship between Moscow and Beijing, but there are reasons to caution [&hellip;]
- [Drug cartels are adopting cutting-edge drone technology. Here’s how the US must adapt](https://ecsap.org/publications/drug-cartels-are-adopting-cutting-edge-drone-technology-heres-how-the-us-must-adapt/): Drug cartels, some of which the United States has&nbsp;designated&nbsp;as terrorist organizations, have long embraced technological innovation to outpace law enforcement and rivals. They pioneered&nbsp;semisubmersible boats&nbsp;equipped with&nbsp;Starlink&nbsp;to evade maritime patrols, built heavily armored “narco tanks” to storm enemy strongholds, and engineered sophisticated&nbsp;smuggling compartments&nbsp;hidden in tractor trailers. Their latest potential leap forward, however, is far more disruptive: the adoption of&nbsp;first-person view (FPV) drones. Taking a cue from Ukraine in its fight against Russian aggression, in which Kyiv has adapted high-speed racing platforms into one-way attack weapons, these cartels are twisting this lesson to their own purposes—not for defense but for drug smuggling, [&hellip;]
- [How China turned the Red Sea into a strategic trap for the US](https://ecsap.org/slider/how-china-turned-the-red-sea-into-a-strategic-trap-for-the-us/): “Salute to the Houthis!” This nationalist cheering&nbsp;appeared across Chinese social media as Western commercial vessels ran a gauntlet of drone and missile attacks in the&nbsp;Red Sea&nbsp;against ships they claimed were traveling to Israel. Meanwhile, ships marked “Chinese Vessel &amp; Crew” sail through these same waters relatively&nbsp;untouched.&nbsp;It’s not a coincidence. Maritime tracking data now confirms what Houthi officials have been openly sharing: Chinese ships receive special treatment in a conflict zone that has become a crucible of hostility toward US interests. This preferential treatment is&nbsp;no accident, but rather the result of careful diplomatic choreography. Recent US Treasury sanctions reveal that Houthi [&hellip;]
- [To end Putin’s war on Ukraine, Trump should sanction Russian oil](https://ecsap.org/publications/to-end-putins-war-on-ukraine-trump-should-sanction-russian-oil/): By Kimberly Donovan Over the past two weeks, US President Donald Trump has shown the world that he can get Russian President Vladimir Putin to the table to discuss an end to the war in Ukraine, and he can coordinate and communicate with&nbsp;Western leaders. But the pageantry of these meetings does not hide the fact that the US president has not been able to successfully negotiate a peace deal. Nor does it hide Trump’s growing&nbsp;frustrations&nbsp;with Putin. To achieve such a deal, which would represent a signature strategic victory, Trump will need more leverage over Putin. He can create this leverage [&hellip;]
- [Ten Harmful Trump Administration Immigration and Refugee Policies](https://ecsap.org/slider/ten-harmful-trump-administration-immigration-and-refugee-policies/): European Centre for Strategic Studies and Policy (ECSAP) and Human Rights Watch The Trump administration has enacted new immigration policies at a dizzying pace, some of which obliterate programs built over decades to enable avenues to safety for people fleeing war and persecution. The impact of these policies is felt directly by the asylum seekers, migrants, refugees, their families and communities. But the impact will also be far-reaching as the US sets an example that is likely to cause other countries to turn their backs on people fleeing for their lives. &nbsp; 1.&nbsp;Declaring an “Invasion” of “Aliens,” Sealing the Border, [&hellip;]
- [The impact of the Ukraine war on global energy markets and global climate change action?](https://ecsap.org/publications/the-impact-of-the-ukraine-war-on-global-energy-markets-and-global-climate-change-action/): European Centre for Strategic Studies and Policy (ECSAP) Instability in global energy markets has persisted well beyond the initial shock of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. By 2026 Europe is far less dependent on Russian fossil fuels, yet Russia — weakened economically and politically — continues to be a source of uncertainty and risk. The invasion of Ukraine was never primarily about oil and gas, but the conflict accelerated shifts in global energy markets that will shape the decade ahead. What is happening now (2026) By early 2025, the physical flow of oil and gas from Russia to Europe has dropped [&hellip;]
- [Afghanistan: Internet Shutdowns Imperil Rights](https://ecsap.org/slider/afghanistan-internet-shutdowns-imperil-rights/): The Taliban government’s decision to impose a nationwide internet shutdown in Afghanistan has brought the country to an unprecedented standstill, cutting off millions from communication, essential services, and access to the outside world. The move, which began with gradual fibre-optic disconnections across several provinces and extended to Kabul in late September 2025, now represents a near-total blackout of digital connectivity. The Taliban has not provided an official explanation, only stating that the shutdown will continue “until further notice.” Collapse of Connectivity and Essential Services The disruption has had profound consequences across Afghan society. Banking systems and electronic payments have been [&hellip;]
- [TOWARDS AN EU 'DEFENCE UNION'?](https://ecsap.org/slider/towards-an-eu-defence-union/): European Centre for Strategic Studies and Policy (ECSAP) Europeans need to bolster their security. Even if the conflict in Ukraine were to end soon, the threat to European security from Russia would remain. Europe’s southern neighbourhood is a source of threats, both from state and non-state actors. And in Donald Trump’s second term, America is likely to devote fewer resources to defending its European allies – even if Trump’s transactional rhetoric towards Europe suggests it is unlikely to abandon them entirely. Advancing European defence co-operation is a priority for Ursula von der Leyen in her second term as Commission president. [&hellip;]
- [Why ending Russian gas transit via Ukraine strengthens EU energy security](https://ecsap.org/slider/why-ending-russian-gas-transit-via-ukraine-strengthens-eu-energy-security/): European Centre for Strategic Studies and Policy (ECSAP) Ukraine’s suspension of Russian gas transit through its territory is not a threat to EU energy security. However, the bloc’s member states should continue working towards their goal of becoming independent of fossil fuel supplies—including gas—from Russia by 2027 On 1 January 2025,&nbsp;an agreement&nbsp;between Russia and Ukraine which had allowed the transit of Russian gas through the Ukrainian pipeline network to customers in the European Union and Moldova (including Transnistria) came to an end. Authorities in Kyiv have&nbsp;consistently reiterated&nbsp;that they have no intention of concluding a new agreement with Russia on gas [&hellip;]
- [POWER LOSSES: WHAT'S HOLDING BACK EUROPEAN ELECTRICITY TRADE?](https://ecsap.org/publications/power-losses-whats-holding-back-european-electricity-trade/): European Centre for Strategic Studies and Policy (ECSAP) Alongside the European Coal and Steel Community, Germany, Switzerland, France, Italy and the Low Countries started to hook up their electricity grids in the 1950s. By trading electricity, especially Alpine hydro power, they could reduce the coal needed for power generation and put it to use in industrial plants. The development of nuclear power and North Sea oil and gas in the 1970s and ‘80s gave further impetus to the European grid, with French and German nuclear plants and British, Dutch and Norwegian gas plants providing cheap exportable power. Now, climate change [&hellip;]
- [Twenty questions (and expert answers) about the negotiations to end Russia’s war in Ukraine](https://ecsap.org/publications/twenty-questions-and-expert-answers-about-the-negotiations-to-end-russias-war-in-ukraine/): European Centre for Strategic Studies and Policy (ECSAP) Ukraine is still standing, more than eleven years after Russia seized Crimea and parts of the Donbas region, and more than three years after Russian President Vladimir Putin launched his full-scale invasion. But what Ukraine will look like in the future remains the subject of intense negotiations—and continued bloodshed. As the United States pushes diplomatic efforts to end the war, we turned to experts across the Atlantic Council to answer twenty burning questions about what’s happening and what’s next. 1. What is the current state of the battlefield? The battlefield needs to [&hellip;]
- [Europe at the Crossroads: Rebuilding Security in the Face of Russian Aggression](https://ecsap.org/slider/europe-at-the-crossroads-rebuilding-security-in-the-face-of-russian-aggression/): European Centre for Strategic Studies and Policy (ECSAP) Introduction Jean Monnet, one of the EU’s founding fathers, once remarked that it is “better to have ten thousand tanks too many than one too few.” His words, drawn from the painful lessons of the Second World War, underscore a reality that Europe has long taken for granted: security is the foundation of prosperity. The European Union has delivered decades of peace, high living standards, integrated infrastructure, and borderless mobility through the Schengen Area. Yet, these achievements are fragile. With the United States gradually retreating from its traditional role as Europe’s security [&hellip;]
- [Under pressure at home and abroad - What path will Serbia take?](https://ecsap.org/slider/under-pressure-at-home-and-abroad-what-path-will-serbia-take/): The New Year got off to a sombre start in Novi Sad as thousands gathered at 11:52 a.m. to honour the memory of the 15 lives lost in the tragic collapse of the railway station canopy. The disaster, which occurred on 1 November,&nbsp;sparked a wave of protests&nbsp;that grew in intensity over the following two months. What began as a student demonstration in Novi Sad quickly spread to other cities, including Belgrade, Niš, and Kragujevac. Students blockaded faculties in a show of solidarity and growing outrage. They demanded full transparency in the reconstruction of the Novi Sad railway station, which had [&hellip;]
- [Generative AI Poses Challenges for Europe](https://ecsap.org/publications/generative-ai-poses-challenges-for-europe/): The latest surge in large generative artificial intelligence models (LGAIMs) mirrors humanity’s age-old fascination with—and fear of—building machines with human-like intelligence and consciousness. Rapid breakthroughs in this field promise to disrupt humanity’s monopoly on knowledge production and content creation. Generative artificial intelligence (AI) encompasses deep-learning models that are trained on vast databases to generate high-quality text, images, audio, video, code, and other content in response to prompts. According to a&nbsp;report&nbsp;by McKinsey, generative AI models could contribute trillions of dollars of value to the global economy. They could yield remarkable results in some areas while falling short in others, shedding light [&hellip;]
- [Moldova’s Twin Battles: Russia from Abroad, Proxies and Fragmentation at Home](https://ecsap.org/issues-in-focus/moldovas-twin-battles-russia-from-abroad-proxies-and-fragmentation-at-home/): Moldova’s upcoming parliamentary election will mark the next face-off between Brussels and Moscow in the EU’s neighborhood. If Chișinău holds the pro-EU line, it will show that even a small democracy can move forward under extraordinary pressure. In&nbsp;Moldova’s upcoming parliamentary election&nbsp;on September 28, the fight will take place on two simultaneous levels: geopolitical and domestic. It is undoubtedly on the frontline of a larger geopolitical confrontation between the EU and Russia over influence in the region. Moscow has devoted sustained efforts to derail Chișinău’s EU path, and it has made Moldova a template for its asymmetrical advantage over the union. [&hellip;]
- [Lessons for African Mineral Producers from the Indonesian Experience](https://ecsap.org/publications/lessons-for-african-mineral-producers-from-the-indonesian-experience/): European Centre for Strategic Studies and Policy (ECSAP) Executive Summary Indonesia, the world’s largest nickel producer, has transformed its mineral sector by combining&nbsp;resource nationalism with industrial policy&nbsp;to capture more value from its critical minerals. Its approach—particularly the&nbsp;nickel export ban, local processing requirements, and downstream investment promotion—offers valuable lessons for African countries now at the center of the global energy transition. For Africa, the challenge is to&nbsp;balance value-addition ambitions with governance capacity, investor confidence, and public welfare. This paper distills Indonesia’s successes and pitfalls into actionable lessons for resource-rich African states seeking to leverage cobalt, lithium, copper, and rare earth reserves. [&hellip;]
- [Bosnia and Herzegovina's quest for EU membership](https://ecsap.org/publications/bosnia-and-herzegovinas-quest-for-eu-membership/): ‘The Commission recommends opening of accession negotiations with Bosnia and Herzegovina once the necessary degree of compliance with the membership criteria is achieved’: so reads the 2023 Enlargement Package unveiled on 8 November. Ahead of the European Council in December, some EU Member States might still argue that December 2023 is&nbsp;the moment&nbsp;to reach the milestone, while others will recall the requirement to fulfil 14 key priorities identified in the European Commission’s 2019 Opinion on Bosnia and Herzegovina’s (BiH) application for EU membership before opening negotiation chapters.&nbsp; Particularly important are the Opinion’s priorities which require comprehensive reforms, such as reform of [&hellip;]
- [Strength in members: How to rally EU enlargement for defence](https://ecsap.org/publications/strength-in-members-how-to-rally-eu-enlargement-for-defence/): European Centre for Strategic Studies and Policy (ECSAP) Summary Convergence in an age of unpeace As the biggest war since 1945 ravages European soil, European countries face a new set of unavoidable security challenges. The new US administration&nbsp;resents&nbsp;shouldering defence responsibilities for Europe. European countries must learn how to cope&nbsp;alone in a Trumpian world. Deeper and faster defence integration with EU accession countries would help project European power and protect them against aggression. Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has already spurred a significant shift towards greater cohesion among NATO and EU member states: Sweden joined NATO in 2023 and Finland in [&hellip;]
- [The UK’s nuclear deterrent relies on US support – but there are no other easy alternatives](https://ecsap.org/slider/the-uks-nuclear-deterrent-relies-on-us-support-but-there-are-no-other-easy-alternatives/): The Trump administration’s&nbsp;volatile approach to its allies&nbsp;has forced the UK to reconsider fundamental pillars of its defence policy, including whether it can rely on the US. This extends even to the UK’s nuclear deterrent, with&nbsp;many&nbsp;questioning&nbsp;whether the UK needs a nuclear weapons system that is less dependent on the US for maintenance and support. Unlike most US allies in&nbsp;NATO, the UK is officially a nuclear weapons state, and therefore less reliant on Washington’s nuclear extended deterrence guarantee. It has its own nuclear weapons system,&nbsp;Trident,&nbsp;which is based in Britain and ostensibly operates independently.&nbsp; However, Trident is closely linked to the US’s nuclear [&hellip;]
- [State capacity, mining and community relations in Peru](https://ecsap.org/issues-in-focus/state-capacity-mining-and-community-relations-in-peru/): Introduction Peru is&nbsp;a&nbsp;mining economy and the world’s second largest copper exporter. Metals and minerals account for 64&nbsp;per&nbsp;cent of&nbsp;Peru’s exports. The export of&nbsp;metals and minerals, led by&nbsp;copper, directly accounts for 9.5&nbsp;per&nbsp;cent of&nbsp;GDP, though the economic activity associated with and generated by&nbsp;mining services contributes more. The sector also attracts 30&nbsp;per&nbsp;cent of&nbsp;Peru’s foreign investment. By&nbsp;2023, 236,000 workers were directly employed in&nbsp;mining.2&nbsp;According to&nbsp;the Peruvian Institute of&nbsp;Economy (IPE), every mining job indirectly generates&nbsp;6.25 additional jobs elsewhere in&nbsp;the economy through consumption and investment.3 Peru’s rich reserves of&nbsp;copper (an essential raw material in&nbsp;the manufacture of&nbsp;electric vehicles, and for the conversion and transmission of&nbsp;sustainable energy) mean the country [&hellip;]
- [Fit for purpose? Reforming NATO in the age of Trump 2.0](https://ecsap.org/featured/test1/): The European Centre for Strategic Studies and Policy (ECSAP) has been a pivotal force in shaping strategic agendas across Europe, the Middle East, North Africa
- [Unpacking the new US-EU trade deal](https://ecsap.org/slider/unpacking-the-new-us-eu-trade-deal/): Executive Summary In July–August 2025, the United States and the European Union announced a new framework trade deal that resets the baseline of transatlantic relations. Central provisions include a sharp reduction of&nbsp;tariffs on European cars and auto parts to 15%&nbsp;(from 25–27.5% under previous arrangements), with&nbsp;retroactive effect from 1 August 2025. The deal also exempts sensitive sectors such as&nbsp;generic medicines and ingredients, aircraft and parts, certain raw materials, and digital transmissions, while establishing commitments on digital trade and a freeze on “network usage fees” in Europe. The European Commission estimates monthly savings of&nbsp;€500–600 million for the EU automotive sector, alongside positive [&hellip;]
- [Has Political Deadlock in Member States Become a Strategic Problem for the EU?](https://ecsap.org/publications/has-political-deadlock-in-member-states-become-a-strategic-problem-for-the-eu/): Europe is clearly facing a crisis of leadership in the face of the most pressing international challenges. The fact that it has yet to develop an approach to possible peace talks on Ukraine means that its role with regard to the United States and Russia may be weakened and its ability to influence the security architecture in Europe diminished. In this context, strong European leadership is essential. The current&nbsp;Polish presidency&nbsp;of the EU Council offers an opportunity to develop a strategic approach in the early stages of the EU’s new institutional cycle. Poland’s defense spending, amounting to almost 5 percent of [&hellip;]
- [NATO after the Hague summit: Building the European pillar](https://ecsap.org/featured/test4/): The European Centre for Strategic Studies and Policy (ECSAP) has established itself as a pivotal independent think tank.
- [Power without purpose: The EU-India dilemma](https://ecsap.org/featured/test3/): The European Centre for Strategic Studies and Policy (ECSAP) has been a pivotal force in shaping strategic agendas across Europe, the Middle East, North Africa
- [Where do we stand after the Alaska and Washington Summits?](https://ecsap.org/featured/test2/): The European Centre for Strategic Studies and Policy (ECSAP) has been a pivotal force in shaping strategic agendas across Europe, the Middle East, North Africa
- [Road to nowhere: Why Europe’s border externalisation is a dead end](https://ecsap.org/research-analysis/road-to-nowhere-why-europes-border-externalisation-is-a-dead-end/): Summary Permacrisis in the Mediterranean On the eve of the December 2023&nbsp;Global Refugee Forum, UN high commissioner for refugees, Filippo Grandi,&nbsp;wrote&nbsp;in the&nbsp;Observer: “we hear tough talk,” mostly from rich countries, “about turning outsiders away … offloading responsibility onto others.” But, he concluded, “refugee situations don’t have to turn into crises if we work together to address and manage them.” The European Union and its member states should take heed. Especially since the ‘refugee crisis’ of 2015, migration management has become a core focus of European policymaking towards southern Mediterranean states. Since then, UN data indicate that over&nbsp;2.39 million&nbsp;migrants have crossed [&hellip;]
- [Financing the Future: Unlocking Private Capital for Global Infrastructure and Climate Goals](https://ecsap.org/research-analysis/climate/financing-the-future-unlocking-private-capital-for-global-infrastructure-and-climate-goals/): Executive Summary The world faces a persistent financing gap for resilient, low-carbon infrastructure—trillions annually through 2030 and beyond. Public budgets alone cannot close it. The decisive variable is&nbsp;private capital at scale, mobilized through credible policy, risk-sharing, and pipelines that meet institutional investors’ risk/return, liquidity, and fiduciary needs. This paper proposes a practical playbook for&nbsp;crowding in private investment&nbsp;into energy transition, resilient grids, transport, water, digital, and nature-based solutions—especially in emerging markets. We detail proven instruments (guarantees, blended finance, sustainability-linked structures, FX and political risk solutions), institutional reforms (MDB capital optimization, country platforms, project preparation), and market plumbing (taxonomy alignment, data and [&hellip;]

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- [Teams](https://ecsap.org/teams/): Home / Page Meet The Team Dr Bojana Zori Dr Bojana Zori is a Policy Analyst at the European Centre for Strategic Studies and Policy (ECSAP), specialising in the Western Balkans and the Eastern Neighbourhood. Her work focuses on political and security dynamics in these regions, with particular attention to emerging threats, the influence of external actors, and their implications for EU foreign policy and the enlargement process. Len Moma Len Moma is the editor in chief of European Centre for Strategic Studies and Policy (ECSAP). She specializes in Europe and the Middle East and the interplay between those two [&hellip;]
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- [Home](https://ecsap.org/): Latest Publication View All Issues in focus View All Meet the team View All Dr Bojana Zori Dr Bojana Zori is a Policy Analyst at the European Centre for Strategic Studies and Policy (ECSAP), specialising in the Western Balkans and the Eastern Neighbourhood. Her work focuses on political and security dynamics in these regions, with particular attention to emerging threats, the influence of external actors, and their implications for EU foreign policy and the enlargement process. Len Moma Len Moma is the editor in chief of European Centre for Strategic Studies and Policy (ECSAP). She specializes in Europe and the [&hellip;]


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